基于不确定理论的铁路货运需求预测

合理预测铁路货运需求是铁路管理部门建设、运营等决策基础。为应对铁路货运需求的复杂变化,基于Pearson相关性分析方法筛选出铁路货运需求的七个具有关键影响的因素,并结合不确定理论建立不确定多元线性回归模型,相应的铁路货运预测结果由传统单一值变成可能的需求区间范围,更加符合处于不确定环境下的铁路货运需求实际情况。选取国家统计局2004~2016年相关数据进实证研究,并与回归模型以及BP模型的预测结果对比分析,实验表明不确定多元线性回归的预测结果更加精确。     

A new study of associating inhomogeneous fluids with classical density functional theory

ABSTRACT

A new density functional for the study of associating inhomogeneous fluids based on Wertheim's first-order thermodynamic perturbation theory is presented and compared to the most currently used associating density functionals. This functional is developed using the weighted density approximation in the range of association of hard spheres. We implement this functional within the framework of classical density functional theory together with modified fundamental measure theory to account for volume exclusion of hard spheres. This approach is tested against molecular simulations from literature of pure associating hard spheres and mixtures of non-associationg and associating hard spheres with different number of bonding sites close to a hard uniform wall. Furthermore, we compare and review our results with the performance of associating functionals from literature, one based on fundamental measure theory and the inhomogeneous version of Wertheim's perturbation theory. Results obtained with classical DFT and the three functionals show excellent agreement with molecular simulations in systems with one hard wall. For the cases of small pores where only one or two layers of fluid are allowed discrepancies between results with classical DFT and molecular simulations were found.     

A theoretical computational model of a plate in hypersonic flow

A theoretical model of an elastic panel in hypersonic flow is derived to be used for design and analysis. The nonlinear von Kármán plate equations are coupled with 1st order Piston Theory and linearized at the nonlinear steady-state deformation due to static pressure differential and thermal loads. Eigenvalue analysis is applied to determine the system’s stability, natural frequencies and mode shapes. Numerically time marching the equations provides transient response prediction which can be used to estimate limit cycle oscillation amplitude, frequency and time to onset. The model’s predictive capability is assessed by comparison to an experiment conducted at a free stream flow of Mach 6. Good agreement is shown between the theoretical and experimental natural frequencies and mode shapes of the fluid–structure system. Stability analysis is performed using linear and nonlinear methods to plot stability, flutter and buckling zones on a free stream static pressure vs temperature differential plane.     

基于Retinex理论与概率非局部均值的红外图像增强方法

针对传统红外图像增强算法中细节模糊及过度增强的问题,提出了一种基于Retinex理论与概率非局部均值相结合的红外图像增强方法.首先通过单尺度Retinex方法调整图像中过暗与过亮部分的灰度级;然后利用概率非局部均值对图像进行分解处理得到基本层与细节层,对基本层采用直方图均衡化拉伸对比度,对细节层采用非线性函数进行增强;最后,将不同层次的结果融合得到对比度与细节增强的红外图像.用该方法对多组不同场景的红外图像进行仿真实验,并将其与多种增强方法进行主、客观对比分析,结果表明所提方法在红外图像的细节及对比度增强方面都获得了更好的效果.     

Aeroelastic analysis of cantilever plates using Peters’ aerodynamic model,and the influence of choosing beam or plate theories as the structural model

In this paper, the aeroelastic analyses of a rectangular cantilever plate of varying aspect ratio is presented. The classical plate theory has been selected as the structural model. The main point that distinguishes this study from previously reported research is employing Peters’ theory to model aerodynamic effect which is not straightforward. The Peters’ aerodynamic model was originally developed to provide lift and moment, which is only applicable to the structural model based on the beam theories. In this study, using the basic concept of the Peters’ aerodynamic model in addition to utilizing the Fourier series, the pressure distribution is derived, which makes Peters’ model applicable to structural models based on plate theory. This combination provides a much simpler state–space aeroelastic model for plates in comparison to the prevalent panel methods, which could lead to a significant reduction in computational time. In addition, the aeroelastic response of the plate with respect to changes in the structural model from the beam theory to the plate theory is evaluated. By using data from an experiment carried out at Duke University, the theoretical results are evaluated. Furthermore, the differences in structural models obtained from the plate and beam theories can be divided into two distinct parts, which are responsible for differences in bending and torsional behaviors of the structure, separately. This approach enables us to measure the effects of differences of each behavior separately, which could provide with a new insight into the problem. It has been determined that the flutter speeds obtained from the beam and plate aeroelastic models are little affected by the difference in bending behavior, but rather is mainly caused by the difference in torsional frequencies.     

砂岩方梁断裂过程区范围的实验确定方法

裂纹前端的断裂过程区是引起岩石非线性断裂及尺寸效应的主要原因。利用数字图像相关技术对砂岩开展了三点弯曲梁实验,获得观测区域高精度的全场位移和应变数据,根据断裂韧带区域水平位移和水平应变的分布特征,结合裂尖岩石颗粒变化的微观分析,提出采用裂纹尖端水平位移波动性和水平应变突变性所得到的波动系数和水平应变突变值,确定断裂过程区形状和临界尺寸的方法。结果表明:砂岩断裂过程区的形状为不规则的狭长带状区域,断裂过程区的临界长度为11~13mm,临界宽度为1.58~2.36mm。断裂过程区区域内形变在趋向裂尖时呈指数增加,但其单位区域内的形变增量呈波动状态。该方法能够更加准确判断岩石断裂过程区的范围,有助于分析岩石的非线性断裂特性。     

A giant enhancement of magnetic moment in a ternary three-shell icosahedral cluster: Fe@Mn12@Au20

ABSTRACT

The average magnetic moment per atom of Mn₁₃ cluster is expected to be enhanced by doping or coating with a shell. Several ternary core–shell icosahedral clusters TM@Mn₁₂@Au₂₀ were constructed by combining substituting the central Mn with VIII elements (Fe, Co, Ni, Ru, Rh, Pd and Pt) and coating with a icosahedral Au₂₀ shell, and systematically studied by using the first-principles density functional method. Compared to Mn₁₃, Fe@Mn₁₂@Au₂₀ cluster shows a giant enhancement on total magnetic moment (52?µ_B) which can be greatly attributed to the ferromagnetic coupling between spin moments of atoms. Coating with Au₂₀ shell enlarged the average distances of TM-Mn and Mn-Mn and is a useful way to change the magnetic coupling style. By analysis of density of states and electron localisation functional, we can conclude that the weak hybridisation between Fe and Mn in Fe@Mn₁₂@Au₂₀ is propitious to maintain their original direction of spin moments of atoms and then form ferromagnetic coupling.     

基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

基于碳关税和配额的再制造决策研究

在跨国闭环供应链中考虑碳关税、碳配额和碳税三种政策的影响,分别建立了出口国制造商(OEM)再制造模型和OEM授权进口国零售商进行再制造模型,得到不同模型中OEM和零售商的最优价格、最优销售量、最优利润,进一步分析了产品碳排放总量是否超过配额的不同情形下新产品碳排放量对新产品和再制造品价格、销售量的影响以及其中碳关税和碳税发挥的作用.结果表明,在配额限制下,存在碳关税、碳税以及两种政策共同约束的取值区间,当税率水平在不同区间时,新产品碳排放量对两种产品的价格、销售量有不同的影响.